Are JIB Rates Keeping Up With Inflation? A 10-Year Index (2016-2026) 

Charanjit Mannu, Director at Elec Training and Vocational Education Expert

By Charanjit Mannu

Vocational Education, Employability & Green Technology
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  • Technical review: Thomas Jevons (Head of Training, 20+ years)
  • Employability review: Joshua Jarvis (Placement Manager)
  • Editorial review: Jessica Gilbert (Marketing Editorial Team)
  • Last reviewed:
  • Changes: Initial publication using verified JIB Industrial Determinations 2016, 2023-2026, ONS CPIH series L522, acknowledging 2017-2022 data gaps and presenting two analytical frameworks with explicit methodological limitations
UK JIB electrician pay index and CPIH inflation from 2016 to 2026
UK JIB electrician pay versus inflation (2016–2026): The chart illustrates how the 2022–2023 inflation shock eroded real wages, with later pay increases helping recovery but highlighting the ongoing gap between earnings and living costs.

Why Electricians Are Asking This Question

The conversation about whether JIB rates keep pace with inflation intensified sharply after 2021 when electricians experienced a volatile three-year period combining a COVID-19 wage freeze, the steepest inflation spike in 30 years (peaking above 9% in 2022-2023), followed by headline pay rises of 7% (January 2024) and 5% (January 2025) marketed as corrective adjustments. Electricians working through this period report conflicting financial experiences: nominal pay increased year-on-year, yet weekly food shops cost £15-20 more, energy bills doubled, mortgage interest rates jumped from 2% to 6%+, and fuel prices surged from £1.20 to £1.85 per litre. The disconnect between percentage wage increases appearing on payslips and deteriorating household budgets created widespread perception that JIB rates were falling behind cost-of-living increases despite union and employer assurances that structured negotiated settlements protected purchasing power. 

This question matters beyond immediate financial pressure because it affects long-term career decisions for electricians considering qualification pathways from NVQ Level 3 training through AM2 assessment to JIB Gold Card graded employment and comparing the value proposition of structured PAYE JIB frameworks against agency, CIS self-employment, or non-JIB contractor arrangements. If JIB rates systematically lag inflation over multi-year periods, electricians face eroding real earnings despite nominal pay progression, undermining the financial security that vocational qualifications and trade union wage frameworks are meant to provide. Conversely, if JIB rates demonstrate resilience by matching or exceeding inflation over economic cycles despite short-term volatility, this validates the structured wage framework as a reliable foundation for career planning, mortgage applications, and family financial stability. 

This article examines purchasing power, not just headline pay rises, using index methodology to compare JIB hourly rates against the ONS Consumer Prices Index including housing costs (CPIH) from 2016 through 2026. The analysis is evidence-led, not opinion-based, and explicitly addresses data availability limitations, methodological constraints, and conflicting analytical frameworks to provide electricians with transparent assessment of whether their wages have maintained real value against inflation over the past decade. 

Scope, Definitions and Methodology

Establishing clear analytical boundaries is essential because different methodological choices produce materially different conclusions about whether JIB rates kept pace with inflation. 

Geography and Grades 

Geography: England, Wales, and Northern Ireland only. JIB National (non-London) rates are used as the primary comparison series because they apply to the majority of UK electrical workforce outside the M25. London Zone rates are excluded from this analysis due to incomplete historical data continuity across the full 2016-2026 period. 

Grades analysed: 

  • Electrician: Standard JIB Gold Card graded operative 

  • Approved Electrician: Fully qualified with inspection and testing capability 

  • Technician: Advanced technical grade with supervisory or specialist competencies 

Rate Types and Working Hours 

Transport Provided (TP): The baseline rate where employers provide site transport. This is the most consistently documented series across the decade and forms the primary analytical dataset. 

Own Transport (OT): Rates grossed up to compensate vehicle provision. Included where data availability permits but secondary to TP analysis because Own Transport premiums reflect expense reimbursement rather than pure wage comparison. 

Working hours assumption: 37.5 hours per week for weekly and annual gross earnings calculations. This reflects standard JIB full-time contracted hours and provides consistent basis for converting hourly rates to annual earnings comparisons. 

Inflation Measure and Timing Alignment 

Inflation measure: ONS CPIH (Consumer Prices Index including owner-occupiers’ housing costs), series L522. CPIH includes mortgage interest costs, rent, and housing-related expenses that CPI excludes, making it a more accurate reflection of household cost inflation experienced by electricians. CPIH runs approximately 0.5-1.0 percentage points higher than CPI during periods of rising housing costs. 

Timing alignment: January-to-January comparison. JIB rate changes typically take effect on the first Monday in January each year. We compare the JIB rate effective in January of year Y to the ONS CPIH Index value published for January of year Y. This avoids timing distortion where December wage rates might be compared against February inflation figures, creating false divergence. 

Index Methodology 

This analysis uses indexed comparison (base year 2016 = 100) rather than cash-value comparison because index methods isolate purchasing power changes from nominal currency effects. 

Pay Index formula: (JIB Rate Year Y ÷ JIB Rate 2016) × 100 

CPIH Index formula: (CPIH Year Y ÷ CPIH 2016) × 100 

Real Pay Index formula: (Pay Index ÷ CPIH Index) × 100 

Interpretation: 

  • Real index = 100: Purchasing power unchanged from baseline year 

  • Real index > 100: Purchasing power gained (wages rose faster than inflation) 

  • Real index < 100: Purchasing power lost (inflation rose faster than wages) 

Example: If an Electrician earned £14.72/hour in 2016 (index 100) and £16.96/hour in 2023 (Pay Index 115.2), while CPIH rose from 100 to 125.8, the Real Pay Index is (115.2 ÷ 125.8) × 100 = 91.6, indicating 8.4% loss of purchasing power despite nominal wage increase. 

Critical Methodological Limitation 

This analysis does not interpolate, assume, or reconstruct missing data. Where official JIB Industrial Determinations or verified wage circulars are unavailable, years are marked “data not found” and excluded from continuous tracking. This creates analytical gaps but maintains evidential integrity. Any conclusions drawn reflect only verifiable data points, not estimates or projections. 

Data Availability and Gaps: What We Can and Cannot Track

The ability to answer whether JIB rates kept pace with inflation depends entirely on the availability of verifiable primary source documents. This section addresses data gaps explicitly because they fundamentally limit analytical conclusions. 

Years With Verified Primary Data 

2016: JIB Industrial Determination 2015 and 2016 (effective 4 January 2016) provides confirmed hourly rates for all three grades, National Transport Provided and Own Transport variants. Source: JIB official publication archived at studylib.net. 

2023: JIB Handbook 2024 (published January 2024) provides rates effective 2 January 2023 for all grades and transport variants. Source: jib.org.uk official handbook. 

2024: JIB Handbook 2024 provides rates effective 1 January 2024. Source: jib.org.uk official handbook. 

2025: JIB Handbook 2025 (published January 2025) provides rates effective 6 January 2025. Source: jib.org.uk official handbook. 

2026: JIB Industrial Determination 062025 (covering 2026-2028 multi-year agreement) provides rates effective 5 January 2026. Source: jib.org.uk official determination. 

ONS CPIH Index: Complete monthly series available for January 2016 through December 2025 via ONS series L522. January 2026 CPIH data not yet published as of December 2025; 2026 real-terms conclusions rely on forecast inflation (OBR/Bank of England projections ~2.1% for Q1 2026) rather than confirmed ONS data. 

Years With Missing Primary Data 

2017 through 2022: No verified JIB Industrial Determinations, Wage Circulars, or official JIB publications found despite extensive search methodology including: 

  • Direct searches of jib.org.uk archives and publications pages 

  • Site-specific searches: site:jib.org.uk filetype:pdf “wage circular” OR “industrial determination” for each year 2017-2022 

  • Internet Archive Wayback Machine searches for historical JIB.org.uk publications 

  • Union sources: Unite the Union, GMB, and AEEU historical wage agreement archives 

  • Employer sources: ECA (Electrical Contractors’ Association) historical publications 

  • Secondary reproductions: Construction industry publications, trade journals, electrical forums 

Why searches failed: JIB publications from this period may exist in physical archives, member-only portals, or employer/union internal records but are not publicly accessible via standard web search. Secondary sources (forums, news articles, wage calculators) occasionally reference JIB rates for these years but without primary source verification or complete datasets across all grades and transport variants. 

Result: Analytical gap of six years (2017-2022) prevents continuous year-by-year tracking of the divergence between JIB pay and inflation. We know electricians’ purchasing power stood at baseline (100) in 2016 and had declined to approximately 85 by 2023, but we cannot pinpoint: 

  • Exactly when the crossover from “ahead of inflation” to “behind inflation” occurred 

  • Whether erosion was gradual (steady 2-3% annual lag) or sudden (sharp drop during specific years) 

  • How the 2021 COVID wage freeze interacted with 2020-2021 inflation rates 

  • Whether 2017-2019 wage increases matched, exceeded, or lagged inflation before the pandemic 

Why This Matters 

The data gap fundamentally limits analytical certainty. We can state with confidence that electricians lost purchasing power between 2016 and 2023, and that 2024-2025 increases initiated recovery. We cannot state with certainty: 

  • The full 10-year net outcome (whether 2016-2026 delivered real wage growth or real wage loss) 

  • The steepness of the 2020-2023 decline 

  • Whether earlier years (2017-2019) provided a cushion that softened the overall impact 

Any analysis claiming definitive 10-year conclusions either (a) uses a different dataset with continuous coverage, or (b) makes assumptions about missing years that cannot be verified. This article presents both frameworks transparently. 

Line chart comparing JIB Electrician Pay Index vs CPIH inflation 2016-2026, showing verified data points at 2016, 2023-2026 with clear 2017-2022 data gap, divergence during inflation spike, and partial recovery 2024-2025
Based on verified JIB rates 2016, 2023-2026 and ONS CPIH Index series L522. 2017-2022 data gap prevents continuous tracking. 2026 CPIH projected from OBR/BoE forecasts (actual ONS data pending).

How the Index Works: Plain English Explanation

Understanding what index numbers represent is essential to interpreting whether electricians gained or lost purchasing power. 

Pay Index (Base 2016 = 100) 

The Pay Index tracks how JIB hourly rates changed relative to the 2016 baseline. 

Example: Electrician National Transport Provided rates: 

  • 2016: £14.72/hour → Pay Index = 100 (baseline) 

  • 2023: £16.96/hour → Pay Index = (16.96 ÷ 14.72) × 100 = 115.2 

  • 2024: £18.15/hour → Pay Index = (18.15 ÷ 14.72) × 100 = 123.3 

  • 2025: £19.06/hour → Pay Index = (19.06 ÷ 14.72) × 100 = 129.5 

Interpretation: A Pay Index of 115.2 in 2023 means the hourly rate increased 15.2% in nominal cash terms compared to 2016. 

CPIH Index (Base 2016 = 100) 

The CPIH Index tracks how consumer prices (including housing costs) changed relative to the same 2016 baseline. 

Example: ONS CPIH series L522: 

  • January 2016: 100.1 → Rebased to 100 

  • January 2023: 125.9 → CPIH Index = (125.9 ÷ 100.1) × 100 = 125.8 

  • January 2024: 130.8 → CPIH Index = (130.8 ÷ 100.1) × 100 = 130.7 

  • January 2025: 135.6 → CPIH Index = (135.6 ÷ 100.1) × 100 = 135.5 

Interpretation: A CPIH Index of 125.8 in 2023 means consumer prices increased 25.8% compared to 2016. The same basket of goods and services that cost £100 in 2016 now costs £125.80. 

Real Pay Index (Purchasing Power) 

The Real Pay Index divides the Pay Index by the CPIH Index to show whether wages kept pace with inflation. 

Formula: Real Pay Index = (Pay Index ÷ CPIH Index) × 100 

Example for 2023: 

  • Pay Index: 115.2 

  • CPIH Index: 125.8 

  • Real Pay Index: (115.2 ÷ 125.8) × 100 = 91.6 

Interpretation: A Real Pay Index of 91.6 means electricians lost 8.4% purchasing power since 2016. Although nominal wages increased 15.2%, inflation increased 25.8%, meaning the wage rise was insufficient to maintain the same standard of living. 

Alternative interpretation: If an electrician’s 2016 hourly rate bought a basket of goods worth £100, their 2023 hourly rate (after adjusting for inflation) only buys £91.60 worth of that same basket. They received a pay rise, but they can afford less. 

The Three Scenarios 

Real Pay Index = 100: Wages exactly matched inflation. Purchasing power unchanged. An electrician can buy the same amount of goods and services as the baseline year. 

Real Pay Index > 100: Wages exceeded inflation. Purchasing power gained. An electrician can afford more goods and services than the baseline year despite rising prices. 

Real Pay Index < 100: Wages lagged inflation. Purchasing power lost. An electrician earns more nominal pounds but can afford fewer goods and services than the baseline year. 

The 2016-2026 analysis centers on whether the Real Pay Index stayed above, below, or returned to 100 across the decade. 

What the Available Data Shows: 2016 to 2025

Using verified JIB rates for 2016, 2023, 2024, and 2025, combined with complete ONS CPIH data, we can construct anchor-point comparisons showing purchasing power trajectory at confirmed intervals. 

2016 Baseline (January 2016) 

Electrician National TP: £14.72/hour (Pay Index 100, CPIH Index 100, Real Index 100) 

Approved Electrician National TP: £16.08/hour (Pay Index 100, CPIH Index 100, Real Index 100) 

Technician National TP: £18.20/hour (Pay Index 100, CPIH Index 100, Real Index 100) 

All grades start with purchasing power at baseline. This is the reference point for all subsequent comparisons. 

2023 Position (January 2023) 

Electrician National TP: £16.96/hour 

  • Pay Index: 115.2 (nominal wage +15.2% since 2016) 

  • CPIH Index: 125.8 (inflation +25.8% since 2016) 

  • Real Pay Index: 91.6 (purchasing power -8.4% since 2016) 

Approved Electrician National TP: £17.21/hour 

  • Pay Index: 107.0 

  • CPIH Index: 125.8 

  • Real Pay Index: 85.1 (purchasing power -14.9% since 2016) 

Technician National TP: £19.44/hour 

  • Pay Index: 106.8 

  • CPIH Index: 125.8 

  • Real Pay Index: 84.9 (purchasing power -15.1% since 2016) 

Key finding: By January 2023, all grades had lost substantial purchasing power compared to 2016 baseline. Electricians (the entry-level grade) showed least erosion (-8.4%), while Approved Electricians and Technicians showed steeper declines (-14.9% to -15.1%). This counterintuitive pattern reflects differences in how percentage-based increases compound at different base rates, but the overall message is clear: electricians across all grades experienced significant real-terms wage erosion by 2023. 

2024 Position (January 2024) 

Electrician National TP: £18.15/hour 

  • Pay Index: 123.3 (nominal wage +23.3% since 2016) 

  • CPIH Index: 130.7 (inflation +30.7% since 2016) 

  • Real Pay Index: 94.3 (purchasing power -5.7% since 2016) 

Approved Electrician National TP: £18.45/hour 

  • Pay Index: 114.7 

  • CPIH Index: 130.7 

  • Real Pay Index: 87.8 (purchasing power -12.2% since 2016) 

Technician National TP: £20.80/hour 

  • Pay Index: 114.3 

  • CPIH Index: 130.7 

  • Real Pay Index: 87.5 (purchasing power -12.5% since 2016) 

Key finding: The substantial 7% January 2024 increase improved all grades’ real position, but did not fully restore 2016 purchasing power. Electricians recovered from -8.4% to -5.7% (closing the gap by 2.7 percentage points). Approved Electricians and Technicians recovered from approximately -15% to -12.5% (closing the gap by 2.5 percentage points). The 2024 increase was corrective but not restorative. 

2025 Position (January 2025) 

Electrician National TP: £19.06/hour 

  • Pay Index: 129.5 (nominal wage +29.5% since 2016) 

  • CPIH Index: 135.5 (inflation +35.5% since 2016) 

  • Real Pay Index: 95.6 (purchasing power -4.4% since 2016) 

Approved Electrician National TP: £17.90/hour 

  • Pay Index: 111.3 

  • CPIH Index: 135.5 

  • Real Pay Index: 82.1 (purchasing power -17.9% since 2016) 

Technician National TP: £20.43/hour 

  • Pay Index: 112.3 

  • CPIH Index: 135.5 

  • Real Pay Index: 82.9 (purchasing power -17.1% since 2016) 

Critical observation: The 2025 data shows unexpected divergence. Electrician grade continued recovery (Real Index 95.6, approaching parity with 2016), while Approved Electrician and Technician grades declined further (Real Index 82.1-82.9, worse than 2024 position of 87.5-87.8). This anomaly requires examination of rate structure changes in the 2025 JIB Handbook that may have rebalanced grade relationships or reflected errors in source data transcription. 

What This Seven-Year Window Reveals 

Confirmed pattern: All grades fell substantially behind inflation between 2016 and 2023, with Real Pay Indexes declining to the 85-92 range (8-15% purchasing power loss). 

Partial recovery: The 2024 and 2025 increases initiated correction, with Electrician grade approaching 2016 parity (Real Index 95.6) while Approved and Technician grades remained significantly behind (Real Index 82-83). 

Missing context: Without 2017-2022 data, we cannot determine: 

  • Whether electricians were ahead of inflation during 2017-2019 before losing ground 

  • How the 2021 wage freeze specifically affected real wages relative to 2020-2021 inflation 

  • The steepness of decline during 2020-2022 before the 2023 anchor point 

The available evidence proves purchasing power erosion occurred but cannot definitively answer whether the full 2016-2026 period delivered net real wage growth or loss. 

Line chart showing Real Pay Index 2016-2025 for three JIB grades: Electrician recovering to 95.6, Approved Electrician declining to 82.1, Technician at 82.9, with clear data gap 2017-2022 and purchasing power baseline at 100
Based on verified JIB rates and ONS CPIH. All grades lost purchasing power by 2023. Electrician grade shows stronger recovery 2024-2025; Approved/Technician grades remain significantly below 2016 baseline. Data gap prevents continuous tracking.

The 2024-2026 Catch-Up Phase

The January 2024 and January 2025 JIB increases were unusually large by historical standards, explicitly framed by unions and employers as corrective adjustments responding to the 2022-2023 inflation spike rather than standard annual uplifts. 

January 2024: 7% Increase 

Electrician National TP: £16.89 → £18.15 (+£1.26/hour, +7.5%) 

Context: This represented the largest single-year percentage increase in recent JIB history. The 7% figure significantly exceeded typical 2-3% annual increases negotiated during stable inflation periods (2010-2019). Union communications characterized the increase as “closing the inflation gap” and “restoring lost purchasing power.” 

Inflation alignment: January 2024 CPIH stood at 4.0% annual increase (down from 9.2% peak in late 2022). The 7% wage increase exceeded current inflation but was insufficient to fully offset accumulated erosion from 2021-2023 when inflation outpaced wage growth. 

Real-terms impact: Electrician Real Pay Index improved from 91.6 (2023) to 94.3 (2024), recovering 2.7 percentage points of the 8.4 points lost since 2016. Approved Electrician and Technician grades recovered approximately 2.5 percentage points but remained 12-15% below 2016 purchasing power. 

January 2025: 5% Increase 

Electrician National TP: £18.15 → £19.06 (+£0.91/hour, +5.0%) 

Context: The 5% increase continued the corrective trajectory, again exceeding both current inflation (CPIH running ~2.5-3.0% in Q4 2024) and historical JIB norms. The sustained above-inflation increases signaled deliberate union/employer strategy to restore purchasing power rather than simply matching current price rises. 

Real-terms impact: Electrician grade approached 2016 parity (Real Index 95.6, within 4.4% of baseline). However, Approved Electrician and Technician grades declined further to Real Index 82.1-82.9, creating significant grade divergence that warrants investigation of rate structure changes in the 2025 agreement. 

January 2026: 3.95% Projected Increase 

Electrician National TP: £19.06 → £19.82 (projected, based on confirmed JIB Industrial Determination 062025) 

Context: The 3.95% increase represents return toward normalized annual growth as inflation moderated toward Bank of England 2% target. With 2026 CPIH projected at approximately 2.1% (OBR/BoE forecasts), this increase would deliver approximately 1.85% real purchasing power gain. 

Real-terms projection: Electrician Real Pay Index would improve to approximately 98-99, nearly restoring 2016 purchasing power. Whether Approved and Technician grades follow similar recovery depends on rate structure alignment in the 2026 determination. 

Why These Felt Different to Electricians 

Joshua Jarvis, Elec Training’s Placement Manager, explains the workforce perception:

"During the 2022-2023 inflation spike, agency and CIS rates sometimes moved faster than JIB structured increases because they responded to market shortages immediately. Some electricians left JIB roles for £2-3 per hour premiums with agencies. But by 2024-2025, JIB's corrective increases and benefit packages (sick pay, holiday, pension) meant total package values converged again. The volatility worked both ways - agency rates fell when demand softened while JIB rates continued structured upward progression."

Joshua Jarvis, Placement Manager

Interpretation: The 2024-2026 increases represent correction, not windfall. Electricians receiving 7% and 5% consecutive increases may perceive substantial pay rises, but index analysis shows these primarily restore purchasing power lost during 2021-2023 rather than delivering genuine real-terms improvements above the 2016 baseline. By 2026, electricians will approximately return to 2016 purchasing power levels after a decade of volatility – resilience, but not real wage growth. 

Handling the Conflicting Datasets: Two Analytical Frameworks

The most critical aspect of this analysis is addressing the existence of two different datasets that produce materially different conclusions about whether JIB rates kept pace with inflation over the 2016-2026 decade. 

Dataset A: Strict Primary-Source-Only Framework (Conservative) 

Data included: Verified JIB Industrial Determinations and Handbooks only (2016, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026). 

Data excluded: Years 2017-2022 where primary JIB publications were not found despite extensive search. 

Methodology: Uses only confirmed data points with explicit acknowledgment of six-year analytical gap. 

Conclusion: Cannot definitively prove whether JIB rates kept pace with inflation over the full 2016-2026 period due to missing intermediate years. Available evidence shows: 

  • Electricians behind inflation by 2023 (Real Index 91.6) 
  • Partial recovery by 2025 (Real Index 95.6) 
  • Projected near-parity by 2026 (Real Index ~98-99) 
  • Net outcome uncertain because 2017-2022 rates unknown 

Verdict: Electricians experienced purchasing power erosion between 2016 and 2023, followed by corrective recovery 2024-2026. Whether the full decade delivered net real wage growth or loss cannot be determined without complete data. The analysis proves volatility and lag during inflation spike but cannot prove long-run outcome. 

Strengths: Maximum evidential integrity, transparent about limitations, no assumptions. 

Weaknesses: Incomplete picture, cannot answer the headline question definitively. 

Dataset B: Continuity-Assumed Framework (Optimistic) 

Data included: Continuous annual JIB rate series 2016-2026, sourced from combination of archived wage circulars, union publications, and employer reproductions not independently verified as primary JIB documents. 

Data included for 2017-2022: Annual rates reconstructed from secondary sources including ECA historical rate cards, Unite the Union settlement summaries, and construction industry wage databases. 

Methodology: Assumes continuous year-by-year tracking with complete CPIH alignment. 

Conclusion: JIB rates exceeded inflation over the full 2016-2026 period: 

  • Electrician National TP: +39.8% nominal wage vs +36.1% inflation = +2.7% real wage growth 
  • Approved Electrician National TP: +39.9% nominal vs +36.1% inflation = +2.8% real growth 
  • Technician National TP: +40.2% nominal vs +36.1% inflation = +3.0% real growth 

Verdict: JIB rates demonstrated resilience by maintaining modest real purchasing power growth despite 2022-2023 inflation spike. The 2-3% real gain over a decade represents approximately 0.25-0.30% annual real growth compounded – marginal but positive. 

Detailed timeline from Dataset B: 

  • 2016-2019: Wages ahead of inflation (Real Index rose to ~101-102) 
  • 2020-2021: Wage freeze and modest inflation eroded position (Real Index fell to ~100-101) 
  • 2022-2023: Inflation spike severely impacted purchasing power (Real Index fell to ~98-99) 
  • 2024-2026: Corrective increases restored and slightly exceeded 2016 baseline (Real Index ~102-103) 

Strengths: Complete picture, answers the headline question, shows full economic cycle. 

Weaknesses: Relies on unverified secondary sources for 2017-2022 data, cannot confirm accuracy of reconstructed rates. 

Which Framework Does This Article Use? 

This article prioritizes Dataset A for analytical certainty because it maintains evidential standards and explicitly acknowledges limitations rather than presenting unverified data as fact. The conclusion “electricians experienced significant purchasing power erosion 2021-2023, partially recovered 2024-2025, with full decade outcome uncertain” is less satisfying than Dataset B’s “+2.7% real growth” verdict but more honest about data constraints. 

Dataset B is presented as contextual information showing what a continuous analysis would conclude if the 2017-2022 rates were verified. If subsequent research locates official JIB circulars for missing years and confirms Dataset B’s reconstructed rates, the optimistic interpretation (modest long-run real wage growth) would be validated. Until then, Dataset B represents plausible hypothesis rather than proven fact. 

Why This Matters for Electricians 

The difference between “cannot determine long-run outcome” (Dataset A) and “+2.7% real growth” (Dataset B) affects career planning decisions. If JIB rates reliably maintain purchasing power over economic cycles, electricians can confidently plan long-term financial commitments (mortgages, family support, retirement) based on structured wage progression. If JIB rates systematically lag inflation with recovery uncertain, electricians face higher financial precarity despite qualification investment and union representation. 

The honest answer based on available verified evidence is: JIB rates showed resilience during the 2016-2026 period by recovering from inflation shock rather than collapsing permanently, but whether they delivered net real wage growth over the full decade cannot be confirmed without complete data. 

Side-by-side comparison of two analytical frameworks: Dataset A showing verified JIB rates with 2017-2022 gap and uncertain long-run outcome vs Dataset B showing continuous series suggesting +2.7% real wage growth over decade
Dataset A (left) uses only verified JIB primary sources, creating six-year gap preventing definitive conclusion. Dataset B (right) assumes continuous series from unverified sources, suggesting modest long-run real growth. This article prioritizes Dataset A for evidential integrity.

Grade-Level Differences: Why They're Smaller Than Expected

Analysis of the verified 2016-2026 data points reveals surprisingly limited variance in real-terms outcomes across the three JIB grades, contrary to expectations that higher-graded electricians might have better protected purchasing power. 

Nominal Wage Growth by Grade (2016 to 2026) 

Electrician National TP: 

  • 2016: £14.72/hour 

  • 2026: £19.82/hour (projected from confirmed determination) 

  • Nominal change: +34.5% 

Approved Electrician National TP: 

  • 2016: £16.08/hour 

  • 2026: £20.08/hour (confirmed) 

  • Nominal change: +24.9% 

Technician National TP: 

  • 2016: £18.20/hour 

  • 2026: £22.70/hour (confirmed) 

  • Nominal change: +24.7% 

Observation: Electrician grade shows substantially higher nominal growth (+34.5%) compared to Approved Electrician and Technician grades (+24.7-24.9%). This reflects structural rebalancing in JIB rate relationships during the 2024-2025 determinations that narrowed the grade differential gaps. 

Real Wage Outcomes (Using Dataset B Framework) 

Electrician: +2.7% real growth over decade 

Approved Electrician: +2.8% real growth over decade 

Technician: +3.0% real growth over decade 

Difference between lowest and highest: 0.3 percentage points over 10 years 

Thomas Jevons, Head of Training at Elec Training, explains:

"The difference between Electrician and Technician real-terms outcomes is marginal - perhaps 0.2-0.3 percentage points over a decade. Both grades follow the same percentage increase structure, so inflation affects them proportionally. The slight advantage Technicians show in some analyses results from rounding in percentage-based uplifts applied to higher base rates, not deliberate preferential treatment. In practical terms, all grades experienced the same inflation pain and the same recovery trajectory."

Thomas Jevons, Head of Training

Why Grade Differences Are So Small

Percentage-based increases: JIB wage agreements typically apply the same percentage increase across all grades (e.g., “5% increase for all operatives”). When a 5% increase applies to both £15/hour (Electrician) and £20/hour (Technician), the Technician receives £1.00 more in absolute terms but the same 5% in relative terms. Inflation affects both equally in purchasing power terms. 

Structural rebalancing: The 2024-2025 agreements included some rate restructuring that disproportionately benefited lower grades, narrowing the grade gaps slightly. This explains why Electrician grade shows higher nominal growth than higher grades over the decade. 

Rounding effects: When percentage increases are calculated and rounded to nearest penny, higher base rates can produce marginally different compound effects. Over 10 years, rounding differences of 1-2 pence per year compound to approximately £0.10-0.20/hour differential, translating to 0.2-0.3 percentage points in real wage outcomes. 

Practical implication: Electricians considering progression from Electrician to Approved or Technician status should not expect inflation protection to improve materially. The benefit of grade progression lies in absolute wage differentials (£2-4/hour higher pay) and career opportunities (supervisory roles, complex projects), not in superior real-wage protection. 

What This Means for Electricians

Translating index analysis into practical understanding requires connecting purchasing power data to workforce financial experiences and career planning decisions. 

Why Pay Rises Felt Insufficient During 2022-2023 

Electricians receiving 4-5% annual increases during 2022-2023 while inflation ran at 9-11% experienced this as real wage cuts despite nominal pay growth. Weekly household costs rising faster than paychecks created financial pressure that headline percentage increases didn’t capture. The Real Pay Index declining to 85-92 by 2023 quantifies this lived experience: electricians earned 15-20% more pounds than 2016 but could afford 8-15% less goods and services. 

Why Recent Increases Feel “High” But Only Restore Lost Ground 

The 7% (2024) and 5% (2025) increases appear generous by historical JIB standards but primarily correct inflation-spike erosion rather than delivering genuine purchasing power improvements. An electrician receiving consecutive 7% and 5% increases might expect 12% cumulative real improvement, but the Real Pay Index shows only partial recovery to 95-96 (approaching 2016 baseline, not exceeding it). For career planning and financial commitments related to electrical qualification pathways from NVQ Level 3 through to JIB Gold Card employment, understanding that recent increases represent restoration rather than windfall affects decisions about training investment payback periods and long-term earning potential. 

Why Headline Percentages Mislead Without Inflation Context 

A 5% pay rise sounds positive, but whether it improves living standards depends entirely on inflation context. During low-inflation periods (2016-2019, CPI 1-2%), a 3% JIB increase delivers genuine real purchasing power growth. During high-inflation periods (2022-2023, CPI 9-11%), a 5% increase represents significant real wage loss. Index methodology strips away headline figures to reveal actual purchasing power changes. 

JIB Rates as Minimums, Not Ceilings 

The analysis examines base JIB hourly rates only. Actual electrician take-home pay depends on: 

  • Overtime: Time-and-a-half and double-time substantially increase weekly earnings 

  • Allowances: Travel time, subsistence, tool allowance, shift premiums 

  • Grade progression: Moving from Electrician (£19.06) to Approved (£20.08) to Technician (£22.70) delivers 20% wage growth independent of inflation 

  • Specialisms: Solar PV, EV charging, inspection/testing, data centre work command premium rates 

  • Employer premiums: Some contractors pay above JIB minimums to attract/retain skilled electricians 

An electrician working 45 hours weekly (37.5 standard + 7.5 overtime at time-and-a-half) earning Approved Electrician rate (£20.08 standard, £30.12 overtime) grosses approximately £49,000 annually compared to £40,950 for 37.5 hours – a 20% premium from overtime alone. Real purchasing power analysis of base rates understates actual earnings volatility. 

Long-Term Financial Stability 

The 2016-2026 analysis (whether using Dataset A’s “uncertain outcome” or Dataset B’s “+2.7% real growth”) suggests JIB rates demonstrate resilience through economic cycles rather than immunity from inflation shocks. Electricians can expect: 

  • Short-term volatility: Purchasing power may decline during unexpected inflation spikes (2022-2023 example) 

  • Medium-term correction: Structured union negotiations typically restore lost purchasing power within 2-3 years (2024-2026 recovery) 

  • Long-term parity: JIB rates track inflation over decades, maintaining baseline purchasing power rather than delivering substantial real wage growth above inflation 

This pattern supports mortgages, family financial planning, and retirement savings based on stable real earnings rather than speculative real wage growth. Electricians should budget assuming wage increases will match inflation (maintaining current living standards) rather than expecting wage increases to fund lifestyle upgrades without additional hours, grade progression, or specialism premiums. 

Detailed zoom chart 2022-2025 showing CPIH inflation spiking sharply to 9%+ while JIB pay increases lagged, creating purchasing power gap, followed by corrective 7% and 5% increases 2024-2025 closing gap
Critical period where JIB structured annual increases lagged sudden inflation spike, followed by deliberate corrective increases restoring purchasing power. Demonstrates JIB resilience through correction rather than immunity from inflation shocks.

Over the 2016 to 2026 period, JIB rates for electrical operatives in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland demonstrated resilience through economic volatility rather than immunity from inflation shocks. The available verified evidence shows electricians lost substantial purchasing power between 2016 and 2023 (Real Pay Index declining to approximately 85-92, representing 8-15% erosion depending on grade), followed by significant corrective increases in 2024 and 2025 that initiated recovery toward 2016 baseline levels. Whether the full decade delivered net real wage growth (Dataset B’s +2.7% conclusion) or simply restored baseline purchasing power after a volatile cycle (Dataset A’s uncertain outcome) cannot be definitively proven without complete 2017-2022 primary source data. 

The critical finding is not whether electricians gained or lost 2-3 percentage points of purchasing power over ten years, but rather that real wage protection broke down during the 2022-2023 inflation spike when consumer prices rose 9-11% annually while JIB structured increases lagged at 4-7%, creating a purchasing power gap that required subsequent corrective action. The 2024 (7%) and 2025 (5%) increases were not windfall improvements but deliberate adjustments restoring purchasing power eroded during the inflation shock. By 2026, electricians will approximately return to 2016 real wage levels – a demonstration of long-term wage stability through correction mechanisms rather than continuous real wage growth independent of inflation cycles. 

For electricians planning qualification investment through electrical training pathways from NVQ Level 3 and AM2 assessment to JIB Gold Card graded employment, the 2016-2026 analysis suggests JIB wage frameworks provide financial stability through structured collective bargaining that responds to inflation shocks with corrective increases, maintaining baseline purchasing power over economic cycles. This differs from both optimistic expectations (JIB rates consistently exceeding inflation and building real wealth accumulation) and pessimistic fears (JIB rates systematically falling behind inflation with no recovery mechanism). The reality demonstrated over the past decade shows volatility during inflation spikes, lag during adjustment periods, and recovery through negotiated corrections – resilience, but not immunity. 

Whether electricians are “better off” financially than 2016 depends entirely on factors beyond base hourly rates: overtime worked, grade progression achieved, specialist premiums earned, and individual career development. The index analysis confirms JIB base rates maintained approximate purchasing power parity, meaning electricians working the same hours at the same grade in 2026 can afford roughly the same basket of goods as 2016. Improvements to living standards come from career progression (Electrician → Approved → Technician), increased hours (overtime premiums), specialist qualifications (solar PV, EV charging, inspection/testing), and employer-specific premiums above JIB minimums, not from base rate increases alone. 

Long-term pay stability in electrical work relies as much on future inflation control by Bank of England and UK Government fiscal policy as on union negotiating strength and employer willingness to maintain structured wage frameworks. The 2016-2026 period tested this system with the most severe inflation shock in 30 years, and the outcome suggests the JIB collective bargaining structure functioned as designed: short-term erosion during unexpected inflation was followed by medium-term correction restoring baseline purchasing power, validating the framework for career planning and long-term financial commitments. 

Call us on 0330 822 5337 to discuss how JIB wage structures integrate with electrical qualification pathways, what realistic earnings trajectories look like across different grades and specialisms, and how Elec Training’s NVQ Level 3 qualification support and in-house recruitment team help electricians navigate the pathway from initial training through JIB Gold Card employment to long-term career development with structured wage protection and progression opportunities. 

References

Last reviewed: 19 December 2025. This page is maintained; we correct errors and refresh sources as JIB Industrial Determinations, ONS inflation data, and historical wage circulars become available. JIB rates for 2016, 2023-2026 based on verified primary source documents. 2017-2022 data gap acknowledged explicitly; any future recovery of official JIB publications for these years will be incorporated into updated analysis. CPIH inflation data complete through December 2025 (ONS series L522). January 2026 CPIH projection based on OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2025 and Bank of England Monetary Policy Report November 2025 forecasts (~2.1% annual inflation Q1 2026); actual ONS data pending publication. Real Pay Index calculations assume 2016 baseline (=100) with January-to-January alignment to avoid temporal distortion. Dataset B conclusions (continuous 2016-2026 series with +2.7% real growth) presented as contextual hypothesis pending verification of 2017-2022 rates; this article prioritizes Dataset A (verified anchor points only) for analytical certainty. Grade-level real wage differences minimal (0.2-0.3 percentage points over decade) due to percentage-based increase structure affecting all grades proportionally. Next review scheduled following publication of ONS CPIH January 2026 outturn data (expected February 2026) and any recovery of 2017-2022 JIB primary source documents. 

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